‘Inflationary headwinds key risk to bond investors’

Jan 28 2013, 02:31 IST
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SummaryEven as India is likely to gain its fair share of capital flows coming to emerging markets in 2013, international investors will be somewhat wary of India at the end of the year, says Gary Dugan, MD & CIO—Asia and Middle East, RBS Wealth Division.

However problems in Iraq, Syria and Kuwait still pose potential upside risk for the oil price. We expect the oil price (Brent crude) to trade in a $100-120 a barrel range with an upside risk to $150.

How has been the progress of policy action in containing the Eurozone debt crisis, can things still go wrong?

The Euro zone still poses a long term risk to the market. It is still very unlikely that many of the Eurozone governments will hit their deficit reduction targets. However the markets have been more forgiving recently so the Eurozone is still likely to muddle through. A general election in October in Germany poses a risk for the market particularly if the current Chancellor Angela Merkel was to be removed from office. In the very near term pending elections in Italy with Mr Berlusconi in the ascendency also poses a near term risk to markets.

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