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?The strength of this government is not its performance, but its ability to manipulate the political class?

BJP leader Arun Jaitley speaks about the 2014 elections, coalition politics and why the Third Front is a ?failed idea?.

In this Idea Exchange moderated by Vandita Mishra, Opinion Editor, senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley speaks about the 2014 elections, coalition politics and why the Third Front is a ?failed idea?

Vandita Mishra: How do you view the UPA?s recent Cabinet reshuffle and Mr Chidambaram?s return to the finance ministry?

Arun Jaitley: The Cabinet reshuffle suggests that to a large extent, the ruling combination and the Congress party, in particular, suffer from a talent deficit. They have a limited resource amongst the elders to choose from. Even if you leave Mr Chidambaram out, I don?t think the senior ministries are manned by the best talent.

Mr Moily was shifted out of the law ministry to what I can term, a lesser portfolio. And today, you suddenly find that you have nobody else to handle something as sensitive as power. After what happened (breakdown of the grid), Mr Shinde should have been sent home. Instead, he?s been given the home portfolio. With all the questions that have been raised and certainly some unanswered questions, it would have been better if somebody else had gone to the finance ministry. There is a second problem: from amongst the younger lot in the party, you have talent that you could develop for the future and some people could have been given a push up. But the road for the youngsters is blocked till the fate of the gentleman who?s blocking the road is decided.

Maneesh Chhibber: Will you continue to oppose Mr Chidambaram in Parliament as you did in the last two sessions?

Arun Jaitley: We don?t have a problem with a person. We have some issues. One of the issues is related to the 2G decision-making process. Then, you have an incomplete discussion in Parliament related to Aircel-Maxis. In the last session, the House felt that he was not the most appropriate person to answer some questions that I had raised and therefore, the then finance minister had to answer them. For almost a week-and-a-half, they delayed the debate. On the last day, I asked if the debate was incomplete or if it had lapsed with the House. The Chair said it was incomplete and it would be concluded in the next session. Now that Mr Chidambaram is back in the job, we?ll have to see who answers.

Maneesh Chhibber: The government is dithering on the Lokpal Bill. It says that unless the select committee gives its recommendations, it cannot act. Team Anna refuses to accept the premise that Parliament alone should decide legislative matters. What is your view?

Arun Jaitley: I am a strong supporter of the concept of the Lokpal as a workable institution. I have been pressing for it both inside and outside Parliament. On issues like sovereignty of Parliament, we are very clear. But there has to be an effective anti-corruption mechanism. The government came out with its unilateral Lokpal Bill draft and, in my view, the draft just doesn?t measure up. Team Anna is absolutely right when they say that the appointment procedure (of the members) is controlled by the government, the removal procedure is controlled by the government, the investigative mechanism is controlled by the government. The investigative procedure is bizarre. All these things were pointed out, and deficiencies in the Bill were sought to be corrected in the Rajya Sabha. Four key amendments would have substantially resolved the issues.

Maneesh Chhibber: What are those four amendments?

Arun Jaitley: In its present form, the appointment of the Lokpal is controlled by the government and the removal is controlled by the government. These were sought to be amended in the Rajya Sabha. The investigative procedures are completely faulty. It?s unheard of in any criminal law jurisprudence that the investigative agency be controlled by the government. And then the spread of the Lokpal. I can understand that the Lokpal covers whoever receives money from the government. But the Bill has, what I call, revenge provisions: that any private agency which raises more than Rs 10 lakh is under the scanner. This could be a school, a club, a dharamshala or an RWA. Now you don?t want to create a Gestapo that will get into every area of human life.

Coomi Kapoor: You?ve been the firefighter for your party in Karnataka but you have come up with only patchwork solutions.

Arun Jaitley: We did have problems on many more occasions than we should have had. But I do hope that this will be a more stable arrangement now.

Swaraj Thapa: The numbers in the presidential elections clearly favoured the government. Do you think negotiation or some kind of understanding with the government would have been better in the vice-presidential elections?

Arun Jaitley: The strength of this government is neither its performance nor its popularity. They?ve been losing almost all state assembly elections, byelections, municipality elections. But it has shown the ability to manipulate a large section of the political class. This ability was evident in these elections. Some of these manipulations have been through the use/abuse of power. People who swore by non-Congress politics and are even part of non-Congress combinations ended up voting for the UPA candidates. I can count at least five of them who had a cloud of the CBI over their heads?Samajwadi Party, BSP. Also Jagan Reddy?s party, which on the one hand claims persecution, on the other, votes for UPA?s candidate. Reports from Karnataka indicate that even the Reddy brothers and their supporters voted for the UPA candidate (in the presidential elections). JMM, our ally in Jharkhand, ended up voting for them.

Swaraj Thapa: One player who didn?t have a CBI case against him and still voted for the UPA candidate in the presidential elections was Nitish Kumar.

Arun Jaitley: He made his reasons known. Sharad Yadav and he said they were voting for an individual. They saw merit in the individual rather than the UPA. But in the vice-presidential elections, they made their contrary stand clear.

Vandita Mishra: It has often seemed that BJP cannot act like a political party till it resolves its leadership question. You are faced with two questions: should you declare a prime ministerial candidate before 2014 and, can it be Narendra Modi?

Arun Jaitley: I don?t want to get into individuals at the moment. These issues have to be resolved within time-frames set by political parties themselves, they don?t have to be media driven. In a large number of parties, both at the Centre and at the level of states, the candidate is identified because the parties have become part of the dynastic system. Then, there are structured political parties like the BJP which do not go on the strength of a caste, a social base or on the basis of a family. Here, you can have a large number of political leaders. How do you choose the first amongst equals? In our earlier generation, we didn?t have this problem because two people, both very senior, were the obvious choices. We don?t have a system of preliminaries. We don?t have a system of party conventions. But at the appropriate time, the party will choose whom it considers the best among the equals.

Vandita Mishra: BJP?s national executive meeting was overtaken by the fact that Narendra Modi refused to attend until Sanjay Joshi was removed from his post. Your Bharat bandh was overtaken by Mr Advani blogging about his problems with the current leadership.

Arun Jaitley: The Sanjay Joshi issue is not an issue about who will lead us in the next election. And if Mr Advani in his blog, with his stature in the party, talks of something in the party which needs course correction, we never take it as adversarial. We take it as advice coming from someone with far more experience than any of us. Mr Modi is chief minister of a state with a good track record of governance. He?s certainly amongst the most popular in the BJP. But that doesn?t necessarily mean there?s any hurry in the party to declare his name or any other name for that matter.

Coomi Kapoor: BJP had hoped that the presidential and vice-presidential elections would help expand the base of the NDA, but the opposite has happened.

Arun Jaitley: The moment the SP and BSP decided to support the UPA candidate, the pendulum had swung in their favour. I am extremely clear that the Third Front is now a failed idea. It?s an idea that hasn?t clicked because it never gets the adequate number of seats on its own. There?s nobody in that whole fraternity who gets more than 25-30 seats and you can?t have a small party anchoring a large coalition. If they do, they?re dependent on one of the two major parties and whenever they have pulled the rug, none of the Third Front governments or prime ministers have lasted a year. It?s a charter for instability.

There is one significant change between the earlier Third Front and now. The strength of the Left is substantially diluted. The other anchor of the Third Front used to be SP. Now, after its two somersaults on the presidential elections and earlier on the nuclear deal, the SP?s credibility for being part of any coalition is suspect. Last time, Congress got 206 seats and the UPA got 265-odd. More than half the contribution came from five states?Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan and Maharashtra?which are now in disarray. There is broadly an anti-Congress mood in the country. Parties which occupy the non-Congress space in their states are going to be the natural beneficiaries. So you will have the BJP as a beneficiary in some states and some other parties in others.

M K Venu: There?s a real possibility of the BJP and the Congress together winning maybe less than half the Lok Sabha seats. What sort of stability will you have with the other regional combinations getting more seats than before?

Arun Jaitley: With the five states I mentioned in disarray and a strong anti-Congress mood in the other parts of the country, when the fall takes place, it could be shockingly low (for the Congress). Inherently, India?s coalition politics has to have a party that has between 180 and 200 seats to anchor the coalition. That?s the only stable coalition.

Maneesh Chhibber: What is the BJP doing to gain the seats you see Congress losing?

Arun Jaitley: By and large, our state governments have done well. Our activities in terms of protests and agitations or rallies are active. In Parliament, we give the government a hard time. We face two challenges: we have to decide the leadership issue at the appropriate time. Second, before and after the general elections, we have to increase the number of our friends or allies.

G S Vivek: IPL gets players from other countries on the basis of BCCI?s financial clout. But BCCI does not allow Indian players to play in other Twenty20 tournaments abroad. Secondly, Kapil Dev had been banned for five years and he is now back in the BCCI fold. Why couldn?t it have been done earlier?

Arun Jaitley: The cricketing calendar in India is already over-crowded. If we look for a slot of even 15-20 days for a new tournament, it?s almost impossible. You also have to decide on the extent of cricket each player plays. The policy was formulated keeping this in mind.

The BCCI is probably one of the better managed sports institutions in this country, perhaps in the world. Some players have asked, why can?t we have different bodies organising cricket? There was an attempt to have unapproved cricket outside the BCCI and so those who joined out, were out. Wiser counsel prevailed in some cases and they came back early, some later. But I think, it?s a tribute to the Board that it was not vindictive.

Maneesh Chhibber: Why does one get the impression BCCI doesn?t want to be transparent?

Arun Jaitley: I?ve seen the functioning of the BCCI for over a decade now. BCCI accounts are available on the net. All the monies are accounted payments. How the BCCI spends this money is not discretionary. There are systems. For example, next year, the TV rights earnings of IPL will see a substantial increase. So 27 per cent of BCCI?s income will also increase. That increased amount will go to the players, umpires and scorers, present and past.

Lakshi Bhatia (Apeejay School, Pitampura): Do you see yourself heading the nation some day, maybe not 2014, but later?

Arun Jaitley: No, I can?t say anything like that.

Y P Rajesh: Looking back at the last four years in Karnataka, can you put a finger on the reason for the mess there?

Arun Jaitley: I was in charge of Karnataka for the 2008 and 2004 elections. The decline of the Congress in Karnataka was substantial. The increase in our strength was sudden. Even as we increased our numbers, we didn?t have the kind of leadership within the organisation that was capable of winning elections on its own. Besides our own traditional cadres, we had a lot of people from wherever we could get them. It took time for a lot of them to assimilate into the BJP and some of them didn?t fit in. That?s what has repeatedly created a problem.

Sejal Gandhi (Apeejay School): Can you think of a defining moment in your life that made you join politics?

Arun Jaitley: I don?t think one can be dramatic enough to say there were defining moments. But one occasion which firmed up my views was the Emergency.

Vandita Mishra: Can you identify a few changes the BJP should make to fight the Congress in the 2014 elections?

Arun Jaitley: A political party must have the enthusiasm of its core constituency. We must keep our core constituency and not lose them. Our core constituency substantially deserted us in 2009. Also, our pronouncements, our programmes have to impact farmers, weaker sections and all other communities. In the south and east, where we are weaker, we have to keep the option of allies open. Therefore, we need to stitch up each state to increase the tally.

Transcribed by Naveed Iqbal & Dipankar Ghose

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First published on: 12-08-2012 at 03:44 IST
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