Budget 2018: The Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) on Wednesday revised upwards growth in gross value added (GVA) by a substantial 50 basis points for the last fiscal when it implemented the note ban, as it revised the numbers for three years — FY15, FY16 and FY17. The rate of expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) in FY17 has been kept unchanged at 7.1%. The base revisions, however, won’t have an impact on Thursday’s Budget as it will still go by the advance nominal GDP estimate for FY18 of Rs 166.3 lakh crore released by the CSO recently and the Budget makers’ estimate of growth upon it for FY19 GDP.
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Nominal GDP growth for FY17 has been trimmed to 10.8%, against 11% announced earlier. Nominal GDP in absolute term, on which its fiscal deficit projections are based, has been raised to Rs 152.54 lakh crore for FY17, against Rs 151.84 lakh crore reported earlier, thus increasing the base for the calculation of growth rates for 2017-18. With the revised base, the nominal GDP for FY18, as revealed in advance estimate, represents only a 9% rise from last fiscal, instead of 9.5% announced earlier.
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When the CSO revised the nominal GDP estimate for FY18 from the budgeted Rs 168.5 lakh crore to Rs 166.3 lakh crore, the Centre’s challenge of meeting the fiscal deficit target was made a bit tougher.