BSE Sensex hits a new high as opinion poll favours NDA

Mar 19 2014, 14:58 IST
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Sensex ended 22.81 points or 0.1% higher at 21,832.61 and the Nifty closed 12.45 points or 0.2% higher at 6,516.65. Sensex ended 22.81 points or 0.1% higher at 21,832.61 and the Nifty closed 12.45 points or 0.2% higher at 6,516.65.
SummaryIndian rupee steady at 61.20 as FIIs buy $6.3 bn in debt since January 1.

Indian shares rose to new highs in intra-day trade on Tuesday on hopes of a stronger government coming to power as foreign funds continued to shop for stocks. The 30-share Sensex rose more than 1% intra-day to a new high of 22,040.72 points while the broader Nifty gained nearly 1% that took the gauge to a record 6,574.95.

Gaining for the second consecutive session, the Sensex ended 22.81 points or 0.1% higher at 21,832.61 and the Nifty closed 12.45 points or 0.2% higher at 6,516.65. Meanwhile, the rupee remained steady at 61.20 to the dollar with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) having bought $6.3 billion of debt since the start of the year, compared with $2.3 billion in the same period last year.

FIIs have been betting heavily on the BJP’s Narendra Modi to lead the next government at the Centre. They were net buyers for the fifth consecutive session, after the latest opinion poll showed the BJP-led NDA ahead of other parties in most Indian states. With Tuesday’s buying, FIIs have bought $1.84 billion in the last 23 sessions. Money, however, is moving out of emerging market (EM) funds, EPFR Global data for the week ended March 12 shows, with EM funds posting net outflows for a record 20th week at $2.51 billion.

Rakesh Arora, MD and head of research, Macquarie Capital Securities, observed that while the outcome of elections in May was anybody’s guess, markets appear to be agreeing with recent opinion polls that suggest a significant number of seats for the BJP-led NDA, which may enable it to form a stable government. “Macquarie’s year-end Nifty target for such a scenario is 7,200,” Arora said.

The rally was a broad one with the BSE Mid-cap index closing 0.95% higher at 6,719.37 while the Small-cap index advanced 0.987% to 6,691.68.

The opinion poll conducted by NDTV, in collaboration with Hansa Research Centre, suggests that the NDA will win 229 seats, UPA 129 and others 130 in the upcoming general elections.

Overall, the Bharatiya Janata Party stands to win 195 and the Congress 106 seats out of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, the opinion poll showed.

The Sensex is valued at 13.9 times estimated 12-month earnings, compared with the average multiple of 14.5 over the past five years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index trades at 10 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The markets are more focused on the election outcome than any global factor. The

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