India’s slowdown is partly a result of its own policy missteps, and not just global conditions. These factors suggest that India can grow at 8% a year, even in the current economic climate.
India’s growth has slowed dramatically from the global boom years. What can it do to recover? Was the period before the financial crisis just a temporary, lucky window for India, now gone forever? The rich world is saddled with debt. An emerging market slowdown, partly a result of the industrialised countries’ own slowdown, and partly due to internal structural issues in China and elsewhere, is the latest shadow looming over India’s growth prospects. Is the gloom escapable?
There are possibilities for hope. Much as I dislike the idea of Indian exceptionalism, in this case it may be warranted to some extent. Most importantly, India is by far the poorest of the BRIC group, and probably one of the poorest of the more amorphous “emerging market” designation. That means it has more room to grow. It is quite far from having to worry about any so-called “middle-income trap,” that might be an issue for China and Brazil. Secondly, India’s demographics give it an opportunity that does not have to be sabotaged by a global slowdown. Thirdly, India’s slowdown is partly a result of its own policy missteps, and not just global conditions. These factors suggest to me that India can grow at 8% a year, even in the current economic climate. How can this be achieved?
The need to create productive employment at a very large scale is obvious. This is more complicated than just giving away money for rural make-work programmes—that is just a transfer scheme for redistribution-cum-income insurance. India needs to create more new businesses and allow existing ones to expand more easily, and in employment-friendly ways. Clearly, labour market reform is needed, and it is not as difficult as it is made out to be. The core problem is political acceptability, and a grandfathering scheme, where existing employees are protected, but new ones in new firms, or certain classes of old ones, are allowed to be employed under more flexible conditions.
Next, the focus of new business creation should be in second and third tier cities and towns. These are best placed to absorb rural labour most efficiently and flexibly. To make this work, strengthening urban infrastructure at this level is critical—this means empowering urban local governments, increasing their