Finance minister P Chidambaram is understandably focused on disinvestment, but given the relatively easy pickings in other sectors, he would do well to spend a little energy there as well. Just look at the maths, and you realise how compelling the option is.
The government has 70 million tonnes of rice and wheat, a figure that’s more than three times the 21-million-tonne buffer stock it needs to carry. There’s the obvious question of what impact unloading these stocks would have had on dampening foodgrain prices—wheat prices rose 15% in April-October and rice 12%—had the government done the right thing, but leave that aside for the moment. Let’s focus instead on the Arundhati Roy statement on how India seems to have more food for rats than for the poor.
It is unlikely government actions could ever be so cynical, but while the government of India has 70 million tonnes of food stocks, it has only 45 million tonnes of covered storage space. Another 16-17 million tonnes comprises what is called cover and plinth, which basically means the grain is covered by plastic sheets; whether that’s enough is difficult to say. So, even by the government’s own admission, about a tenth of stocks are completely exposed to the vagaries of the weather—this is the stuff that Arundhati Roy says is left to rot or eaten by rats. As compared to the unofficial estimate of 10% of grain rotting each year, the official figure is less than 0.1%. But if this were true, why would the government even want to build more storage, especially given the costs?
What if the government decides to sell 10 million tonnes of this food stock—in July, the Cabinet approved sale of 2 million tonnes but less than half of this has been exported so far. At the current global price of $313 a tonne, this could mean an inflow of R17,200 crore into the government’s coffers. Add to this another R2,400 crore based on the current carrying costs of R2,400 per tonne per year, and we’re talking of a number that’s just under R20,000 crore. Sell 20 million tonnes, and we’re talking of R40,000 crore into the finance minister’s coffers. Given the government doesn’t have storage capacity for around a tenth of its stocks, and we’re not even talking of the grain under cover and plinth, selling off 10 million tonnes will also free up valuable space for the next