Following last week's publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, we now know that a reduction in US monetary stimulus could be on the agenda for the next FOMC meeting on December 19. How much does this matter?
When the Fed unexpectedly decided not to taper in September, the markets were stunned and gyrated wildly, although investors had only themselves to blame for being wrong-footed in this way. Ben Bernanke had made crystal clear his reluctance to reduce monetary stimulus as long as the US economy appeared to be weakening, which appeared to be the case throughout the summer. By December 19, the situation may well be very different, since the economy will probably be improving and the US fiscal stalemate may well have been resolved. If such improvements happen, the Fed will have no compunctions about wrong-footing investors again, in the opposite direction.
So what will be the impact on the world economy and financial markets if the Fed decided to taper as early as December? The answer is, not much. As long as the Fed stands by its commitment to keep interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future, tapering will have no major economic impact. Therefore, its financial significance should also be marginal, except insofar as investor psychology overwhelms rational economic analysis.
Ever since the global taper tantrum started six months ago, I have suggested in my column that investors and business leaders should spend less time on Talmudic parsing of Fed rhetoric and more on analysing the economic and financial data that will ultimately determine the outlook for the global economy and financial markets, and therefore drive monetary decisions too. For much of this period, investors have chosen to do the opposite, swinging from panic to euphoria and back at the slightest hint of a nuance in the Feds verbal contortions. Luckily this neurotic behaviour has calmed down in the past few weeks, as investors have reverted to the focus on economic and financial fundamentals that served them well in the first few months of this year, before the taper tantrum.
This calmer behaviour is likely to continue, regardless of what the Fed decides to do on December 19, for two reasons. The first is that the obstacles to economic growth that largely explained this years disappointing performance are gradually eroding, as explained in the FOMC minutes this week: Acceleration [of the US economy is] expected to be