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After paying scant attention to detail while asking for cancellation of the two BSES electricity distribution companies in the capital, Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has done it again. This time around, he has asked the states anti-corruption bureau to file an FIR against petroleum minister Veerappa Moily and his predecessor Murli Deora along with Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) chairman Mukesh Ambani for their role in hiking prices of natural gas. And, for good measure, Kejriwal has said that while RIL will get a price of around $8.2 per mmBtu as compared to $4.2 right now, RILs partner Niko was supplying gas to the Bangladesh government at just $2.4 from its gas fields in that country. But just because an argument is seductive doesnt mean it is accurate.
For one, it is not just RIL that will earn more money, so will the state-owned ONGC and the government itselfevery $1 hike in gas prices, gives the government $550 million more by way of increased royalties, profit shares, higher dividend and corporate taxes, which means the $4 hike being talked of will give the government $2.2 billion more (R13,640 crore) each year. And the Bangladesh example doesnt take into account the very different ground realitiesBangladeshs gas is onshore while most of Indias gas is in the deep waters where costs are much higher. Which is why, as FE reported, even the state-owned ONGC made a presentation to the oil secretary several months ago where it said that it was not viable for it to drill in the deep waters at the current $4.2 price.
A study by consultants IHS-Cera, for instance, had pointed out that while India has 53 tcf of reserves, around 85% of this was viable only at prices above $10 per mmBtu. Indeed, while ONGC produces around
20mmscmd of gas from its onshore fields today, the cost of doing so is $3.75 per mmBtu, a number that is significantly higher than Nikos $2.4 in Bangladesh. The amount of gas in each field also makes a difference. Though ONGC has not started production in its deepwater offshore fields, it produces 50mmscmd of gas from its shallow water offshore fields today at $3.5 per mmBtuthe price is lower than that for onshore production because the volumes in the offshore fields are higher.
The anti-corruption crusading chief minister would also do well to look at another reality. That with Indias on-off policies