FE Editorial : Waiting for the bottom

Dec 01 2012, 01:42 IST
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SummaryWith bank credit to the commercial sector growing just 5.3% at the beginning of November as compared to even the low 6.5% last year, the September GDP numbers come as no surprise.

cash transfers add to consumption expenditure. Agriculture, which accounts for over a tenth of GDP, is likely to be negative in Q3 while industry will benefit from the dramatically lower base of last year’s Q2. Services may not grow too much in Q3, because of the strong base as well as the fact that the sharp slowdown in construction—partly due to the very slow capex cycle—will take a while to reverse. The ball remains in the government’s court. The sharp slowdown in Q4FY12 (growth was 5.3% versus 8% for Q1FY12) will, of course, help make Q4FY13 look better.

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