President Barack Obama's re-election this month gave supporters of comprehensive immigration reform an immediate dose of optimism. They hoped that Obama, bolstered by the 70%-plus support he received from Hispanic voters, might now feel ready to champion the cause he largely avoided during his first term.
And they thought that Republicans, after the thumping they got at the hands of Latinos in the Nov. 6 election, might soften their resistance in order to stay competitive in future elections.
But as advocates mobilize for what is likely to be a two-year drive to get an immigration law enacted, their optimism may be tested by a dose of reality.
However sympathetic Obama might be, he will be preoccupied with fiscal battles well into next year and less likely to engage in the kind of salesmanship analysts believe is essential to sell broad immigration policy changes to the public. And Republicans in Congress, as a group, may not be eager to reverse long-held and deeply felt positions on immigration in an era when so many are vulnerable to primary election challenges from the right. Plus, they may be just as consumed by fiscal issues as the rest of Washington.
Democratic Senator Mark Warner noted the fiscal cliff - the tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January - will suck up Washington's energy early in 2013, even as his party wants to use the new Congress to tackle big issues like immigration, climate change and job creation.
We're not going to get to any of that until we get this (fiscal cliff) fixed, until we lance this boil, Warner said in a meeting with Reuters reporters and editors last week.
Immigration reform, which has failed repeatedly in Congress over the past decade, aims to accomplish several goals — none of them easy.
For Democrats and their labor union supporters, the 11 million undocumented foreigners, many having spent years in the United States, should be allowed to come out of the shadows and given a path to citizenship while working here legally.
Many Republicans complain that this approach would reward those who broke the law by jumping in front of those waiting to emigrate legally. The 11 million includes the children of illegals who have been brought into the United States through no fault of their own. Obama, impatient with Congress' inaction and with an eye on re-election, last June moved on his own to allow some of them to avoid deportation for two years and obtain work permits. For Republicans, stronger enforcement measures are necessary to keep more illegals from entering the United States through states bordering Mexico, especially if an improving U.S. economy begins creating more jobs. Democrats argue that tough controls already are in place.
Both sides want to more efficiently verify legal workers in the United States, while the business community wants better access to low-paid farm workers and well-paid high-tech workers on a temporary basis, which troubles some union leaders.
Supporters of reform hope to see progress soon. At a minimum, they'll want to have a bill (introduced) by early spring, around April, said Andrea Zuniga DiBitetto, who follows Congress for the AFL-CIO, the confederation of US labor unions.