As the world’s largest economy gradually winds up its stimulus programme and economic activity in the US gathers momentum, the dollar is expected to strengthen against other currencies. And at home, a stable government at the Centre and a likely pickup in growth could pull down gold prices this year.
According to a report by India Ratings, in the current financial year, gold prices are expected to weaken to about R25,000-27,000 per 10 gm from the current levels of R30,000 per 10 gm. These projections are based on the expected pattern in international gold prices, assuming a status quo on restriction of gold imports and the rupee remaining at 60 or thereabouts against the dollar.
Moreover, the US Dollar Index — which has a negative correlation with gold prices — remains strong and global gold prices are likely to range between $1,150-1,250 per ounce, after falling from the current levels of $1,300 per ounce. However, as the yellow metal is seen as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties or any perceived debasement of fiat money, any lower-than-expected GDP growth rates in the US, the EU or China, or any geopolitical uncertainty, could push up global gold prices to $1,300 per ounce levels.
The rating agency does not expect any ease in the restrictions on gold imports. “Easing of restrictions is unlikely to cause a substantial incremental fall in domestic gold prices.
The possible reasons for this may be a push to global gold prices because of
Indian import demand, re-emergence of pressure on current account deficit and weakening rupee,” says the report.
Globally, while the US is gradually winding up its unconventional monetary policy, the EU and Japan continue with their loose monetary policy. Central banks in these countries continue to add to their reserves because of the ensuing uncertainty over fiat currencies.
However, the gradual winding up of the stimulus programme in the US might push up the interest rates, which could lead to gradual unwinding of exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings. In fact, ETF holdings declined 28% y-o-y in 2013 and the current inventory holdings resemble the levels last seen in December 2009. The report says continued risk-on-trade on back of an economic recovery in the US and euro zone could only generate limited interest in ETF investments or might lead to a further unwinding of gold inventory.
Analysts say gold serves as a useful diversification tool in an investor’s portfolio. However,