Officials are in discussions to cut a record high import duty on gold and relax rules on exports, government sources said, after the measures helped narrow the country’s trade deficit and now threaten to encourage smuggling.
India imposed the curbs last year when overseas gold purchases — the country’s second most expensive import after oil — pushed its current account deficit to a record and undermined the rupee currency.
With three duty hikes last year to a record 10 per cent and onerous restrictions tying purchases to exports, official arrivals shrank almost 90 per cent in the six months to November, helping China displace India as the world’s top gold buyer.
The decision to cut the import duty is likely to be taken anytime this month, said one of the government sources, who has direct knowledge of the deliberations but did not want to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.
With the current account deficit much reduced and little impact seen on the rupee from the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut back stimulus, the time may soon be right for authorities to make it easier for gold-hungry Indians to buy.
“Earlier, we had argued that we should wait for the Fed’s decision on tapering its monetary stimulus. After the Fed’s decision, we are not left with any strong argument,” said another source with direct knowledge of the deliberations.
The Fed trimmed its monthly bond purchases at the end of 2013 with little impact on the rupee.
India’s current account deficit is now likely to be less than $50 billion in the year to March 31, 2014, down at least $20 billion from earlier estimates, the second source said.
Even the governor of India’s central bank, whose insistence that 20 per cent of gold imports be exported as jewellery has hurt the most, has suggested there may come a time for change.
“Once we feel more comfortable with the current account deficit, once we have a sense the tapering, at least the threat of it, is behind us, we will certainly consider unwinding some of these distortionary actions,” Raghuram Rajan said last month. He also said smuggling would rise if curbs on imports continued for too long.