IMF cuts India growth estimate to 3.75% in 2013 on weak demand

Oct 08 2013, 19:04 IST
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As a result, external pressures have grown in these economies. (AP) As a result, external pressures have grown in these economies. (AP)
SummaryIn 2012, India's growth rate was 3.2 pct, while in 2011 it was 6.3 pct.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today lowered its projection of India's growth rate to 3.75 per cent in 2013 from 5.7 per cent estimated earlier on account of poor demand and weak manufacturing and services sector performance.

The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook report, also said India is among the economies that may require more tightening to address inflation pressure.

"In India, growth in fiscal year 2013 is expected to be around 3.75 per cent, with strong agriculture production offset by lacklustre activity in manufacturing and services, and monetary tightening adversely affecting domestic demand," the IMF said.

"For fiscal year 2014, growth is projected to accelerate somewhat to 5 per cent, helped by an easing of supply bottlenecks and strengthening of exports," according to the report released on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings here.

In April, the IMF estimated India's GDP would expand at 5.7 per cent in 2013 and at 6.2 per cent the following year, indicating the country's declining growth had bottomed out.

In terms of GDP at factor cost, India's growth is estimated to be 5 per cent in fiscal year 2012, at 4.25 per cent in 2013 and at about 5 per cent in 2014, it noted in the latest report. In 2012, India's growth rate was 3.2 per cent, while in 2011 it was 6.3 per cent.

According to the IMF report, in India and Brazil, infrastructure and regulatory bottlenecks slowed output supply in the face of still-strong domestic demand. As a result, external pressures have grown in these economies, it said.

In economies, including India, Brazil and Indonesia, more tightening may be needed to address continued inflation pressure from capacity constraints, which will likely be reinforced by recent currency depreciation, the report said.

The Asian Development Bank on October 2 lowered India's growth projection for 2013-14 to 4.7 per cent from 6 per cent. Last month, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council cut its growth forecast for this fiscal to 5.3 per cent from 6.4 per cent.

The IMF said growth in China is projected to decelerate to 7.5 per cent this year, in line with the authorities' target, and further to 7.25 per cent next year.

"Policymakers have refrained from further stimulating growth, which is consistent with the objectives of safeguarding financial stability and moving the economy to a more balanced and sustainable growth path," it said.

The report said growth in Asia during the first half of

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