IMF cuts India growth estimate to 3.75% in 2013 on weak demand

Oct 08 2013, 19:04 IST
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As a result, external pressures have grown in these economies. (AP) As a result, external pressures have grown in these economies. (AP)
SummaryIn 2012, India's growth rate was 3.2 pct, while in 2011 it was 6.3 pct.

2013 generally moderated and was weaker than anticipated in the April outlook. This was due to a more rapid slowdown in China's pace of growth, which affected industrial activity in much of emerging Asia, including through supply-chain links, while India faced persistent supply-side constraints.

By contrast, Japan was the main bright spot, reflecting the new policy momentum, which has boosted asset prices and private consumption, it said.

The report said global growth is in low gear, the drivers of activity are changing and downside risks persist.

"China and a growing number of emerging market economies are coming off cyclical peaks," it said, adding that their growth rates are projected to remain above those of advanced economies but below the elevated levels seen in recent years, for both cyclical and structural reasons.

The report said global activity is expected to strengthen moderately but risks to the forecast remain to the downside.

"The impulse is projected to come from the advanced economies, where output is expected to expand at a pace of about 2 per cent in 2014, about 0.75 percentage point more than in 2013," it said.

Drivers of the projected uptick are a stronger US economy, an appreciable reduction in fiscal tightening and highly accommodative monetary conditions. Growth in the euro area will be held back by very weak economies in the periphery, it said.

"Emerging market and developing economies are projected to expand by about 5 per cent in 2014, as fiscal policy is forecast to stay broadly neutral and real interest rates to remain relatively low," the report said.

The IMF report said emerging market and developing economy growth rates are now down some 3 percentage points from 2010 levels, with Brazil, China and India accounting for about two-thirds of the decline.

"Together with recent forecast disappointments, this growth decline has prompted further downgrades to medium-term output projections for emerging market economies. Projections for 2016 real GDP levels for Brazil, China and India have been successively reduced by some 8 to 14 per cent over the past two years," it said.

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