India expected to have a good third quarter, says World Bank chief

Nov 21 2013, 13:24 IST
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Growth in the emerging markets is going to be over 5 per cent, says the World Bank. Growth in the emerging markets is going to be over 5 per cent, says the World Bank.
SummaryJim Young Kim's remark is in line with Chidambaram's observations that economy is now picking up.

you look at (BRICS) Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, the BRIC is China and the others have not yet built a framework that is going to be very stable," he said.

Fischer added his guess is that China will turn out more positive than expected and there will be about eight per cent growth.

"Remember that when China grows at 8 per cent after 10 years of growth at 10 per cent, it is adding for more to global GDP at 8 per cent growth this year than it added when it was growing 10 per cent 10 years ago, because the economy is two-and-a-half times larger than it was previously," he said.

"Well, there are a lot of candidates and I'm not sure I'm one to sort them out, but I think there is a chance that policy in India is a great disappointment.

"...then politics is taking over (in India) and doing things that do not make a whole lot of sense economically, and there's an election coming up," he said.

"Wherever there's an election coming up, it's worth considering what they're going to do up to the election, and then how long it will take them to undo it.

"We used to have this saying in the IMF, it takes ten years to build up a country and to build up its framework and it takes one election to destroy it, and it happens time and time again, and it's very sad,"  Fischer said.

"If you take China, for example, and agree that some of the recent economic developments have been good, but it is still a financial sector whose policies don't work," he added.

Structural reforms, likewise, are needed in India, as well," said Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, Columbia University.

"I think around the world, rather than looking at big monetary or macro factors, these are individual policy factors," he added.

Responding to questions, the World Bank President Kim said China lifted more than 600 million people out of poverty in the last 20 years.

"We have a chance to do it, but our research shows that about two-thirds of the poverty alleviation comes from growth and about a third comes from various policies and methods to support the poor directly,” he said.

"In India, they have a USD 1 trillion infrastructure deficit over the next five years, and the government has said to all of us that more than half of that has got

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