By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.
Key market and trade corridor trends from the HSBC Trade Forecast:
- India tops the tables for all 23 markets surveyed as either their fastest import or export growth partner out to 2020. - Bilateral trade between China and India is set to increase significantly. India will be the fastest expanding market for Chinese products, with export growth averaging 20% a year during 2013-15 and 17% a year during 2016-20. Meanwhile, India exports to China are set to grow 23% between 2013-15 and 19% in 2016-20.
- South south trade continues to show up as a trend. Brazil's fastest growing trade partners are India, Vietnam and China and Mexico's imports from India and China will grow 13.9% and 13.4% respectively between 2016 – 2020.
Indonesia exports to the rest of Asia (ex-Japan) are expected to grow at a solid pace of close to 10% a year over the period 2021-30. The fastest growing trade routes will be to India and China over the medium term (2013-2015), led by their insatiable demand for commodities.
- Singapore's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to rise by a fairly robust 7% a year on average during 2021-30. But the fastest growing trade routes will be with China, India and Vietnam over this period.
- Bangladesh is forecast to develop its role linking 'emerging Asia', driven by trade growth with India throughout the period. Bangladesh's trade is expected to increase 19% between 2013-2015 and 14% between 2016 -2020.
- Malaysia is forecast to see strong growth to Latin America in the years to 2020, at approximately 9% in the period 2016-20, underpinned by a greater sophistication in the products imported by the continent, particularly in electronic goods. Malaysia's exports to Brazil are predicted to grow 14% annualised over the same period.
- Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualised trade growth throughout the forecast period 2012-30. China will have overtaken the US as Vietnam's largest export partner by 2030 but the US, Japan and Korea will remain key sources of demand for Vietnam.
- Australia's main export markets are in Asia, and this will continue. Australia's