Indian rupee in standout gains as markets watch G20, zloty dented

Sep 05 2013, 21:28 IST
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SummaryThe Indian rupee's 1.5 percent rebound led emerging markets broadly higher on Thursday but the growing likelihood of U.S. stimulus rollback dampened gains and Polish assets were dented by a controversial pension reform move.


Many argue still-loose global monetary conditions and economic recovery will help emerging markets. Japan maintained its monetary stimulus on Thursday, while euro zone's central bank is expected to signal again that its interest rates will remain low for a while. Britain kept policy unchanged.

While recovery in the developed world is historically a positive for emerging markets, Danske's Pravdova said: "It will help but there is a lag. We won't see a pickup in EM before next year."

In emerging Europe, the Turkish lira fell to a record low hit by the prospect of military action against neighbouring Syria, the rising oil price and the central bank's refusal to raise rates to defend the currency.

The Polish zloty meanwhile fell 0.3 percent versus the euro and five-year bond yields rose to 10-month highs after the government told private pension funds to transfer the bonds they hold to the state - one-fifth of the total - while abolishing a rule that required all citizens to contribute.

Polish stocks fell more than 1 percent

The overhaul will help Poland push down public debt and boost public spending but analysts say the move will marginalise the private pension system, distort markets and dent Poland's reputation as a pro-market haven.

Societe Generale analysts advised clients to sell zloty.

"The government's decision is disappointing for the market and has undermined investor confidence," they wrote.

"It will negatively affect liquidity on the bond market and will make it even more dependent on foreign investors, whose share of the debt market will rise in line with the cancellation of domestic-held bonds."

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