Jai Ho box office collections success not a one-off, Eros International rated 'buy'

Feb 21 2014, 21:14 IST
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Jai Ho box office collections were big, but more top stars on Eros platter - Saif Ali, Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone, Ajay Devgan, Sonakshi Sinha. Jai Ho box office collections were big, but more top stars on Eros platter - Saif Ali, Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone, Ajay Devgan, Sonakshi Sinha.
SummaryJai Ho box office collections were big. Now, Eros targets Saif Ali Khan, Rajinikanth, Deepika Padukone...

Eros International has been in the news recently for the massive Jai Ho box office collections, which however, failed to beat the magnificent performance of Dhoom 3, yet it has put the company's stock in good position.

Catalogue monetization led positive surprise at both revenue and margin front Revenue grew by 17% YoY to Rs.433 crore in Q3 FY14 against our expectation of Rs 404 crore. Positive surprise at revenue front was led by huge spurt in catalogue monetization which increased by around 75% YoY to Rs.60 crore in Q3 FY14.

Revenue from other main streams such as theatrical and satellite rights were more or less in with expectation i.e. ~Rs.170 crore (39% of revenue) and ~Rs.110 crore (25% of revenue), respectively, in Q3 FY14.

EBITDA margin improved by 679 bps QoQ to 31.3% in 3Q FY14 significantly better than our estimates of 25% margin level. Higher than expected EBITDA margin was primarily led by catalogue monetization as minimum expenditure is incurred for earning the same and hence top-line directly flows to bottom-line.

Movies lined-up for FY15E looks promising

The company is planning to release in FY15E eight movies of A category of which 4 will be in Hindi and 4 in regional languages such as Tamil & Telugu. Big movies lined up for release in H1 FY15E are Happy Ending (starring Saif Ali Khan), Kochadaiyaan (starring Rajinikanth, Deepika Padukone and music composed by A R Rehman) and Action Jackson (star cast includes Ajay Devgan and Sonakshi Sinha).

EBITDA margin is likely to be around 25% in FY14E and FY15E

The management expects EBITDA margin to be around 25% in FY14E and FY15E; as compared to historical average i.e. ~22% range, supported by revenue flow from catalogue monetization which has relatively higher margin as compared to other revenue streams.

Parent company committed that new deal terms will be similar to current deal in respect of sharing overseas films right Parent company’s top management downplayed the street concerns about significant changes in respect of terms for sharing overseas films rights on deal renewal in October 2014. Under the current deal, Parent Company i.e. Eros International Plc pay ~39% of film cost for overseas rights to Eros International Media Ltd. We believe, clarity from Parent Company will remove major overhang on the stock.

Valuation and view

We believe strong movie slate lined-up for release in FY15E will support mid-teen growth rate in the coming year. Moreover, we expect EBITDA margin will

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