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Long march to China dream

China?s Third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress gives fuzzy roadmap

In the run-up to the Third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress, China?s state-run media was almost ecstatic?indicating a definitive turning point that would uplift the leadership of President Xi Jinping-Premier Li Keqiang from the mundane to the profane. The four-day closed session concluded on November 12 with the announcement of a ?state security committee?, a leading team for ?comprehensively deepening reform? and ?markets to play a decisive role??perhaps it hasn?t quite?

Certainly, this has been a year that has witnessed political melodrama what with the theatrical high-profile trial involving rival Bo Xilai refusing to die down. To make matters worse, a controversial anti-corruption campaign is under way, which, critics allege, is a ?purge? (rectification) campaign in guise; indeed, ten high profile ?tigers? (top-level cadre) are in the net. As if that was not enough, a ?self-criticism? campaign reminiscent of Mao?s times is sending tremors through the hierarchy in the Party.

Thus, the promise of deliverance, key to cementing President Xi?s control over the Party was eagerly awaited?the grand precedent was set by none other than China?s great reformer, Deng Xiaoping, who announced the historic break with Mao and communism with ?Reforms and Open Door? at the Third Plenum of the 11th Party Congress in 1978.

But dismissing the announcements may be premature?there may be more in the woodworks. The invocation of the classic Deng Xiaoping line in the communique, ?crossing the river by feeling for stones?, indicates the pre-eminence given to the Dengist strategy of proceeding without a blue-print of action, fashioning strategy and policy appropriate to meet the requirements of the situation.

However, President Xi Jinping?s perusal of the ?China Dream? echoing the original ?American Dream? stands precariously on the back of a system ideologically and pragmatically mid-way between socialism and capitalism?Deng?s cat is neither white nor black and has been catching mice?but is ageing and ill in parts.

Some positive signals have emanated earlier this year. This includes the major initiative to make Shanghai?s Pudong a Free Trade Zone (FTZ). It was Deng who had identified Pudong as the ?dragonhead? of economic reforms. The pilot FTZ was launched with much fanfare but, significantly, no top leader was present at the opening. The FTZ translates as further reduction of red tape and tariffs, foreigners will be allowed to invest and be on par with local industries (but for a 10-page long ?negative list?) and 18 services segments have been opened up for foreign investment.

But there are mounting problems that need redressal. The State-backed think-tank Development Research Centre (DRC) suggested in Plan 383 the abolition of household registration system (hukou) to speed up urbanisation, supplant the registration by a social safety package and trim state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

The contending pulls of reform and domestic pressures make the job none easier. On the domestic front, the hukou tied to entitlements and population control (the latter is possible as the hukou card carries minute details such as criminal record and credit card history) has been relaxed leading to unprecedented mobility in history. As the 2010 census indicated, 220 million (now up to 230 million, 2012) are migrants (i.e. without the hukou to live there). Geographer Cindy Fan (UCLA) estimates a whopping 36 million migrant children in cities. In addition, there are 60 million left-behind children and 20 million left-behind elderly (children and parents left behind by migrants in the countryside). China?s rural landscape now exhibits the unique phenomenon of ?hollowed villages? as a result of migration. Also, the nebulous status of migrants as neither rural nor urban but of an undefined ?third citizenry? that the state has no control and information of has likely prompted the announcement pertaining to ?state security committee?. Many are suggesting that this will be fashioned on the lines of America?s National Security Council.

Other challenges have prompted invocation of Deng?s ?crossing the river by feeling for stones?. Today, 50% of China?s population lives in urban areas and, by 2020, will reach 58%. Urbanisation is proceeding often on land expropriated from peasants by local governments (similar to ?power of eminent domain? in India where land can be acquired in ?public interest?). According to DRC, the conversion of cultivated land for construction totalled 1.97 million hectares between 1997-2007 and illegal conversion between 1999 and 2005 was estimated to be 333,000 hectares. Thus, accommodating urban dwellers has put tremendous pressure on land. In 2008, the government instituted a strict cultivated land ?red line? of 120 million hectares.

But this has not resolved the problem pertaining to land ownership in rural China. In urban China, it is less complicated as land is leased for a number of years ranging from 40 years to 70 years. In any case, ownership is not a natural right, but a right bestowed by the state. China?s peasantry has long-term user rights over land (including sub-contracting) but no ownership rights. Fragmentation of land has become a problematic issue.

It is also well-known that land has become an easy source of revenue?the local government acquires land from the peasants and sells to property developers at a profit or takes over land in name of administrative reorganisation. This has created a landless peasantry and the anomaly of ?villages-in-cities? (chengzhongcun).

There have been many ambitious Village Relocation and Recombination (VRR) programmes whereby villagers are asked to move to sky-rise (concentrate in one area), thereby free fertile or cultivable land. But this has had huge social ramifications?the bearings of one such ?model? project in Huaming village (on the outskirts of Tianjin) by the NYT indicates social angst centred on loss of jobs and sense of self.

Thus, reforming the ?land coffer? or the rural land system which is a major source of revenue, meeting the demands of urbanisation and food security are challenges that will engage the administration. Besides, so are the ailing SOEs which need to be trimmed as they are believed to be suffocating the private sector, the legal system which has no teeth and also address the environmental costs of a rising, shining China on its water and air quality.

These challenges will likely be addressed by the dynamic duo of President Xi-Premier Li in the time to come?borne by the homage to Deng Xiaoping. But the inherent conflict writ into spouting Dengism and practising Maoism aka ?self-criticism? and ?purge? campaigns makes for a confusing, if not contradictory, path to the ?China dream??perhaps the result of the Xi-Li duo trying to please all factions, from right to left.

The author is a Singapore-based sinologist and is currently visiting fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi. Views are personal

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First published on: 16-11-2013 at 05:01 IST
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