Though it may take a couple of quarters for same-store sales (SSS) to revive, we believe the worst is behind. We believe Jubilant Foodwork, along with Titan, is the best play on revival of urban discretionary consumption. We factor SSS growth of 7-8% each in FY15E and FY16E, respectively. We recently upgraded the stock to a ‘buy’. We maintain a buy rating on the scrip with a target price of R1,370, valuing it at a P/E of 39x, 15% discount to three-year average. Worsening of macro, spike in input cost inflation remain the key risks.
Jubilant Foodwork’s management indicated a soft demand and a gradual pick-up in H2FY15, on the basis of improvement in macros. Frequency of ordering by existing customers has declined marginally and is less than four times per annum. For demand to improve, macro parameters like disposable income need to pick up for its core target group of Sec A/B. Management expects inflation to moderate gradually as dollar appreciation-led inflation is part of the base and diesel price hike led inflation moderates, going forward.
As per management, in a nascent category like QSR, competition is good from a long term category expansion viewpoint even though it may entail short term margin pressures due to discounting/promotions.