Amid much uncertainty (writing this the day before the ‘Big Count’), there is one great certainty. There is a profound transition taking place in Indian political life. Take the BJP. The party is going through a generation change and a well-disguised ideological transformation. Modi may be many things people may like or dislike, but he has sidelined a generation of BJP leaders who were there through the lean days of the Eighties and tended the party through the Nineties. This generation won and then threw away power in 2004. It failed to renew the party in 2009. Now its time is up.
Politics is not a kind business. The rejection of the older generation, albeit clothed in words of respect, will be ruthless. The Congress had this moment of transition in 1969 when Indira Gandhi split the party to throw out the older leaders who thought they could rule from behind the throne. That gruesome episode changed the Congress into a personal and, then in 1984, a dynastic party.
The Congress is now paying the price for that transition as it finds itself saddled with a clueless heir apparent. It can neither get rid of the dynasty, nor can it dare to suggest to Rahul Gandhi that he should take a course in public speaking or work harder than he has done so far.
The party faces the prospect of spending five years in opposition with a leader who has an aversion to attending or speaking in Parliament.
Rahul was elected to Parliament and, luckily for him, the Congress won power in 2004. He has had the luxury of being able to come and go as he pleases since the UPA had the numbers. In opposition, the required discipline will be hard. No escaping abroad for two days as he has just recently done. Being in the opposition will test Rahul and show if he has the political stamina to lead his party for five years in the wilderness. One can only hope that he will not listen to the small army of sycophants who will tell him that it was not his fault that the Congress lost. He has to introspect if he wants to be a serious politician.
Narendra Modi has a different problem of managing the transition. He is a complete contrast to Rahul. He has had to do all the hard work himself to get to the top. He