Retain reduce with TP of Rs 770, 30% downside: The reported same store sales growth (SSSG) of -2.6% for Q3FY14 is significantly below our estimate. H1FY14 saw SSSG of 6.5%, which means underlying consumer demand has become considerably worse over the past quarter. Check: Jubilant Foodworks Ltd shares
The management attributed the decline to weak economic growth and said they are optimistic about a recovery in the medium term. However, the near-term outlook remains uncertain and, in our view, SSSG trends are likely to remain muted over the next two-three quarters.
Any recovery in H2FY15 is built more on hope at this stage, and we see more cuts to consensus earnings coming in the next couple of quarters. Margins also disappointed during the quarter (down 260 bps y-o-y) with Dunkin Donuts business continuing to be a drag. Our earnings and TP (target price) are cut to factor in a slower growth environment, and with the stock trading at 35.6x FY16F (forecast) earnings, vs a sector average of 23x, we retain our Reduce rating.
Catalysts—a sharp recovery in SSSG and an improvement in margins: The company’s business model is built on the underlying assumption that SSSG will be strong, which helped drive both growth and profitability. We believe in the near term, SSSG recovery is unlikely to come through, hence valuations should see a correction down to nearer the consumer average.
Valuation: JUBI trades at 35.6x FY16F vs. sector average of 23x JUBI trades at 35.6x FY16F vs a sector average of 23x. Valuations remain expensive despite the fact that the earnings profile is sharply lower vs FY11-12, when SSSG was very strong. Current valuations build in strong SSSG over the next couple of years, which we believe is unlikely given the slowing momentum in demand.
Q3FY14 results significantly below expectations: While sales were 8.8% below our estimate, PAT was 20.9% below our estimate and 17.4% below the Street. For the first time since 2009, SSSG has turned negative. This is reflective of the sharp decline in new customer acquisition as well as weak underlying consumer demand. While there was expectation that a turnaround in growth was still far away, investor expectation after the first couple of quarters was for mid single-digit SSSG to continue. In that context, the Q3FY14 results were a significant disappointment, with underlying demand trends getting significantly worse on a sequential basis.
Net revenues increased 18.5% to Rs 4.6 bn