Temperatures are soaring, and farmers are being cautious; but if high temperatures prevail through March, the rabi crop will be impacted and yields would either be on par or marginally lower than the last year’s low, CRISIL said in a research note. Even as the driving factor is not much in control, farmers in Punjab, Haryana and western UP have begun spraying crop nutrients such as bio-stimulants and specialty fertilisers, which might help them cope with the heat wave to some extent.
Wheat prices have been on a downward trend in the past 20 days, but if high temperatures hurt crop output, the price trend may reverse. With the third e-auction of wheat by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) reaching the market at a much lower selling price than the January price, cereal prices in the physical markets fell 30 per cent from January highs. In January, wheat prices had reached Rs 3,200/quintal on lower availability and due to fall in the government’s buffer stock following lower procurement last year, when the production was hit by heatwaves and private traders picked up wheat at higher prices.
Yields in primary rice producing states
The CRISIL report said that the eastern part of Uttar Pradesh is expected to have relatively good yields on-year because of timely sowing after harvest of kharif paddy. Western UP, however, could see a marginal decline due to late sowing if high temperatures persist in March. The state accounts for ~30 per cent of India’s wheat production. In Punjab and Haryana, which collectively account for ~25 per cent of the country’ wheat production, late-sown wheat is in the flowering state and early sown lot is in the milking stage.
The high temperature will prove to be detrimental to grain in both these stages. Madhya Pradesh, accounting for ~20 per cent of India’s wheat production, also has its wheat crop in the milking stage. And Bihar, which accounts for ~5 per cent of the country’s wheat production, saw early sowing and the crop there is at the grain formation/maturation stage, meaning it would be relatively less impacted. The report said that if the weather situation persisted for the next 20 days, there could be a turnaround in prices.
