From a global point of view, India is in an advantageous position as China struggles with credit bubble, Russia with Ukraine crisis and Brazil with weak macros. Domestic investors are hugely underinvested in financial assets including equities and will chase equities going forward looking at historical performance. They will enter equity market for wrong reasons of past performance, but will end up with right experience if remained invested for long term.
Based on the past experience of the Modi government in Gujarat and the NDA government at the Center, it will be fair to assume that their focus will be on the following:
1. Improve rural economy through adoption of technology in farming like BT Cotton seeds, building check dams to recharge ground water, cut intermediation margin through rationalisation of APMC regulations and improved connectivity
2. Proactive solicitation, speedy approvals and effective monitoring for attracting investments
3. Minimum government and maximum governance: Their will focus on e-governance to improve delivery of government services. They will also empower bureaucracy for proactive decision-making
4. Improve delivery of government device by plugging leakages and improving quality, such as power supply guarantee in Gujarat, but at a price
5. Creating supply/overcapacity in fields like education, which can overcome issues like reservation and yet provide skilled workforce
6. Path-breaking infrastructure project like GQ road/highway with efficient execution in road, urbanisation and water sector
7. Reduction in interest rates (It moved from 12 per cent to 7 per cent on 10 Year Gilt during NDA regime)
8. Monetisation of government assets to supplement revenue generation
Apart from the above, the government can also focus on optimisation of natural resources, especially coal and iron ore, reduce cost of capital for small entrepreneurs through improved financial inclusion, remove the inverted duty structure to encourage local manufacturing, improve performance of PSUs through more administrative freedom and kick-starting Capex cycle, encourage infrastructure creation through innovation like Reverse BOT (giving running projects like Mumbai Local train on Public Private Partnership basis and using the cash to launch new infrastructure project like Mumbai Metro).
Equity markets are now pricing in revival of investment, appreciating rupee, falling interest rates, faster growth and more flows from both domestic as well as global investors.