Conventional wisdom suggests Gujarat has led the way to growth under Modi, but reality suggests otherwise
Tehseen Poonawalla
If I were to begin this article by writing that Gujarat has been India?s leading state in terms of economic development, most people would not bat an eyelid. Such has been Narendra Modi?s PR blitzkrieg, that it has succeeded in branding him as the ?Vikas Purush? and to some extent shifted attention from the horrors of the 2002 pogrom. But if one were to closely analyse the ?miraculous story of Vibrant Gujarat? and compare it with other states, one realises the claims made by Modi are perhaps exaggerated. Now, if I were to revisit the start of my article and begin with the lines that Haryana (a Congress ruled state) outperforms Gujarat on almost all economic indices, most readers would be sceptical. However, statistics reveal that not only does Haryana outperform Gujarat but the slogans dished out by Modi?s marketing team are a bit of an overstretch!
If we compare the per capita income of both states, Haryana ranks higher with a per capita income of R92,327 against Gujarat?s R63,996 (for the year 2011). In fact another Congress ruled state Maharashtra takes the second place with R83,471. The annual growth rate from the years 2001-2 to 2010-11 sees Haryana clock a fantastic 10.4% coming second in the country against a 6.1% average by Gujarat that lands it a distant 15th (Average for the last 9 years). The Annual Plan for Haryana for the year 2012-13 is R26,500 cr compared to R51,000 cr for Gujarat. This translates to a per capita annual plan of R8,046 for Haryana, ensuring it once again takes the top honours in the country whereas Gujarat at R6,301 comes a distant 10th. Haryana once again out performs Gujarat touching a very commendable 17.1% Annual GSDP Growth Rate for the year 2011-12 taking the 2nd rank whereas Gujarat takes the 10th position with 15.68% for the same year. Haryana?s GSDP per capita of R94,680 out performs Gujarat?s per capita of R75,115.
Even on employment generation, as many as 319 people per 1,000 were employed in industry in urban Haryana as against 306 in Gujarat . On the very important criteria of inclusive growth?Haryana with 24.1 % of the population below the poverty line has managed to elevate and bring prosperity to a larger section of its citizens as compared to Gujarat with 31.8% of people below the poverty line. Thus, we see that on almost all the economic parameters of development Haryana comprehensively out-scores Gujarat.
What about the Human Development Index (HDI)? Well, on this count, the Gujarat story is miserable to say the least. On every parameter from health and income to education, Gujarat falls way behind most states. The HDI for Gujarat is 0.527 giving it the 10th rank whereas Haryana is 0.552 taking the 5th spot. What should be worrying for Gujarat is that its score has seen a downward trend. Haryana on the other hand is moving upward in the rankings. Congress ruled Kerala takes the lead in every sector of the HDI (0.790). Kerala tops the countries Life Expectancy at birth with an average of 74.0 years. Haryana in the 5th position with 66.2 years once again races ahead of Gujarat in the 10th position with 64.1 years (the last of the states above the national average of 63.5)
Even if we were to compare Modi with other Gujarat Congress chief ministers like Chiman Bhai Patel (who governed with Congress support and then later joined the Congress until his demise) from 1990 to 94?Gujarat achieved a growth rate of 16.75%, which is higher than the growth rate during Modi’s tenure. And this was when the full benefits of opening up the economy were not evident. During the 10 years of Congress rule from 1980-81 to 90 before Chiman Bhai Patel became CM, Gujarat was ruled by Madhavsinh Solanki and Amarsingh Chaudhary and it achieved a growth rate of 14.8%. Again, one must consider that this was the period before the liberalisation of the economy, hence we can see, even amongst his peers in Gujarat, Modi is not the best performer. The only chief minister Modi outperforms in recent times is his former party colleague Keshubhai Patel!
Yet, Narendra Modi has managed to position himself as the ?poster boy? for development. His team, through his concerted political discourse, often crafted, managed and tempered in tune with the occasion, have created an illusion that he champions the cause of development. Statistics however say a different story.
Narendra Modi may take swipes at the “Delhi Sultanate” but it is that very throne he hopes to occupy. Sections of the Indian middle class do see in him a potential Prime Minister, largely due to the aggressive and clever packaging of ?Brand Modi?. The Congress has several chief ministers who have delivered on the issue of governance if the same parameters were to be applied to them! Maharashtra is another example of a state ruled by the Congress for the last 25 of the 30 years, which has often been projected as falling behind Gujarat. Yet, once again we see here that while Maharashtra has been almost on par with Gujarat in terms of growth rate, it has a GDP twice that of Gujarat and a per capita income significantly higher than Gujarat. In fact, Maharashtra outperforms Gujarat by a distance in numerous Human Development indices.
The last 8 years of the UPA rule in the centre, has seen the nation post an average growth rate of 8.42% (2005-11), whereas the NDA regime from the years 2000-2004 saw India clock an average growth rate of 5.68% .
Who is better suited to govern India, will be a call for the electorate to take. The ballot will not be cast over just better economic development, impressive numbers or superior advertising, but a host of other factors. That is the great strength of Indian democracy. However, the Congress would do well to learn from Modi the effective use of both the mainstream and social media to positively project their achievements. The lack of planning and coordination on this front is harming the Congress and has created a perception of non-governance, particularly amongst the urban middle classes, who were instrumental in helping the Congress cross the 200 tally mark in 2009. Hopefully the Congress can rectify this chink in its armory, because in politics it is not just what you do that’s important but also how you project it!
The author is a political commentator
