In a big twist in the Karnataka elections, Congress has decided to extend unconditional support to the JD(S). This means that the Congress has extended outside support to the former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular) and offered that his son, Kumaraswamy, become the chief minister of state – a scenario which technically looks possible. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party is around 7 seats short of forming the government. The Congress will submit its letter of uncoditional support to the Governor.
Adding to the BJP’s concerns, senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad has claimed that Deve Gowda has already accepted their offer. “We had a telephonic conversation with Deve Gowda and and Kumaraswamy. They have accepted our offer. Hopefully, we will be together,” Azad was quoted as saying by ANI.
The Congress’ support to the JDS has brought in new dimensions to the elections. Here are 4 scenarios possible in the elections:
1) JD(S) accepts Congress offer, Kumaraswamy forms a minority government
If at all the Janata Dal (Secular) accepts the offer made by the Congress, and the respective MLAs of two parties remain intact, there will be a repeat of 2013 Delhi Assembly elections. The JD(S) will form a minority government with the support of Congress.
Why JD(S) flock may remain intact
If JD(S) forms the government with outside support, it will mean that no Congress MLA will be a minister in the government. That means, that all the ministers will be from JD(S). Going by the numbers, all the 40 JD(S) MLA may get cabinet berths in the government and may think against breaking away from its flock.
Why Congress flock may NOT remain intact
It’s vice-versa of the Congress scenario. If the Congress supports the JD(S), their MLAs won’t get anything in the cabinet. Some of them may decide otherwise than staying with their party.
2) Horse-trading, some of the Congress/JD(S) MLAs don’t support their parties
Going by the examples of Goa and Manipur, it can be expected that some of the JD(S) or Congress MLAs resign or abstain from signing the letter of support to their legislative party’s leader.
3) The JD(S) doesn’t accept the offer at all, a hung assembly
We are yet to listen to an official word from the JD(S). The JD(S) shares a very bitter past with Siddaramaiah, Congress’ tallest leader in the state. There’s a thin chance that they decide not to take the outside support of the Congress
4) The JD(S) goes with the BJP
The JDS has been in power with the BJP in past. The saffron party is a formidable force given its pan India presence. If the JD(S) decides going with the BJP, they may get chief ministership for a certain time period, a formula two parties had agreed in past. Also, this may get JD(S) install some ministers in Union Cabinet.
