India, could as well as go to China or other emerging economies.
Elections bring hope, not assurance.
Recent market rallies around assembly elections have given us a glimpse of what markets could do in the event of a political environment that is more favourable to business. While popular sentiments as well as media reports see a new government with BJP at the centre as a game changer for markets and economy, it is simplistic to imagine that a single party could pull its weight effectively enough in the present fragmented political picture. Or to imagine that the stubborn challenge of inflation or the nagging problem of global economic slowdown can be dismissed by a couple of policy changes. In a cricket parlance, we know how good or bad the pitch is, only after the second team has batted. On an optimistic note, sometimes, a change in face or approach could do what a dozen of policies could not. Such hope could keep the markets upwardly projected through the year though, the trading ranges and volatility could be bigger, as we would consistently bump into rough weather owing to inflationary pressure on growth initiatives, which may be fairly expected to be a persistent theme next year too. Infact, only a small rise of 1.4% in overall hiring numbers was predicted by a study done in association with CII, pointing at the industry’s general outlook.
After that last rate announcement of the year, having maintained rates, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan told that “I also want to emphasise that it shouldn’t be taken that we’re on hold. We are waiting for data. Hence as the data come in, we will react appropriately.” If that be the case, we have a real problem.
Newer peaks in 2014; newer products.
Though the peaks seen around December elections fizzled off soon, it is indicative of a potential that is waiting to be harnessed. The persistence and the quantum of FII money that has flowed into Indian financial markets are impressive. According to data compiled from SEBI, FIIs have invested over one lakh crore rupees in the Indian stock market so far in 2013, which is suggestive that markets are poised for bigger up moves in 2014. Meanwhile, DIIs have been net sellers of over 9000 crore rupees in November, which is consistent with the trend of retail investors, whose decisions influence MFs, Insurance companies, liquidating at recent peaks. This also suggests